2026 Predictions Episode
As we close out 2025, I sat down with my colleagues Mike and Phuong to do our annual regroup, unpack the year behind us and lay the groundwork for what’s coming in 2026. If there’s one theme that echoes across our conversation: things are accelerating.
2025 Recap: From AI Supplementation to Startup Efficiency
Mike's predictions from last year held up well. AI has undeniably begun to supplement (not replace) white-collar jobs, with blue-collar augmentation just beginning. Foundational AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic continue to attract sky-high valuations, but the rest of the venture landscape tells a more grounded story.
The IPO market thawed slightly. Mike called it a 4/10 compared to 2024’s 0/10, and we may be inching toward a 5 or 6 next year. Meanwhile, secondaries, private equity, and new capital solutions are starting to fill in venture’s long-standing liquidity gaps. This maturing of the ecosystem is a major structural shift.
Despite the dominance of foundational model players, there’s an exciting resurgence at the application layer. As OpenAI and others refocus on their core models, startups can thrive by building narrow, excellent solutions on top of those platforms. Expect more best-in-class applications from lean, verticalized teams.
Phuong notes that the cost to launch a startup has dropped dramatically. Teams of two to four can now do what ten did before. With AI co-pilots, distribution-first thinking, and faster feedback loops, founders can validate and scale faster, but that also means standing out is harder. Differentiation, defensibility, and domain expertise are more essential than ever.
What Wins (and What Fails) in 2026?
Winners will automate full workflows, not just tasks. Think AI tools that generate strategy, manage processes end-to-end, and augment human decision-making.
Losers will be companies delivering commoditized outputs such as generic content, basic legal reviews, or standalone transcription tools that get absorbed by platform giants. AI startups must deeply understand customer behavior and prove real KPI movement.
Also, robotics. We might see the first consumer humanoid robots hit the market in 2026. Think ultra-expensive novelty items like the Tesla Roadster. But the real impact is likely in construction, where labor shortages and high risk create massive opportunities.
Final Thought: The Innovation Curve Is Steep
The AI story is still just beginning, we’re in inning two, maybe still one. The way startups are formed, scaled, and exited is evolving rapidly. This is the best time in history to build, but the bar is higher than ever.
If you're a founder navigating this terrain, stay sharp on distribution, automate deeply, and make sure you're solving a meaningful problem. We’re always happy to chat at Interplay.
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💡 FAQ
Q: What types of startups are winning in 2026?
A: Startups automating full workflows, embedding into daily operations, and helping users make smarter decisions will lead the pack.
Q: What’s happening with AI and jobs?
A: AI continues to supplement workforces – especially white-collar jobs – rather than replacing them outright.
Q: Will humanoid robots really be a thing in 2026?
A: Expect high-cost, low-functionality V1 products for ultra-early adopters – more symbolic than transformative (yet).
Q: How should founders think about competition in the AI age?
A: Differentiation is key. If your product can be absorbed into a bigger player, it likely will. Focus on deep value and distribution moats.
Q: Is the IPO market coming back?
A: Slowly. 2026 could be a 5 or 6 out of 10. Expect more mega IPOs, but not a return to the ZIRP-era frenzy.
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